Preview: State ARRA Job Numbers Are All Over the Map

by

This Friday, October 30 is when the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board is scheduled to release Recovery Act (ARRA) recipient data covering the more than $200 billion in stimulus funds that are passing through state governments. It will be a red letter day in the history of open government.

The states were required to submit their data earlier this month. While most have kept mum about their results, some have “leaked” key numbers (or much more) via their own Recovery Act websites. My colleagues and I at Good Jobs First have scanned those sites and offer this preview of what Friday has in store.

Probably the most anticipated numbers are those relating to job creation and job retention. States are supposed to provide such estimates relating to the dozens of federal grant programs funded by ARRA, including the huge amounts they have been receiving through the state fiscal stabilization fund.

As with the federal contractor ARRA data released on October 15, there are bound to be inconsistencies in the way the state job numbers get reported. This is already suggested by the states that have announced their results. Here are the ones we have found (amounts are full-time equivalents):

California: 100,000

Florida: 22,457

Georgia:  23,879

Idaho: 699

Illinois: 18,000

Iowa: 4,434

Maine: 894

Michigan: 19,498

Minnesota: 11,800

New Hampshire: 3,007

New Mexico: 4,100

Oklahoma: 6,706

Oregon: 8,000

Pennsylvania: 2,907

Rhode Island: 1,703

Tennessee: 7,710

Washington: 2,900

West Virginia: 370

In theory, the number of jobs should very roughly correlate with the amount each state has received in ARRA funds. Yet if we take the amounts above and compare them to the total ARRA funds paid out in those states, that is not always the case. Here are the figures for dollars paid out per full-time-equivalent job created or retained:

California $161,562

Florida $216,674

Georgia $130,332

Idaho $549,652

Illinois $296,696

Iowa $248,928

Maine $629,170

Michigan $206,765

Minnesota $165,803

New Hampshire $105,510

New Mexico $127,561

Oklahoma $174,474

Oregon $195,679

Pennsylvania $1,249,085

Rhode Island $303,056

Tennessee $223,996

Washington $749,411

West Virginia $1,205,977

While about half the group are in a reasonable range from about $105,000 to $216,000 (keeping in mind that not all funds have a direct impact on jobs), the others begin to veer off. For Pennsylvania and West Virginia to report an amount per job more than ten times that of New Hampshire suggests that something is wrong with the reporting system.

If the rest of the state data released on Friday show similar inconsistencies, the national jobs total should be viewed as something much less than definitive.

Reposted from the STAR Coalition website.

Clarification: The $200 billion figure mentioned above is estimated spending on the covered programs *over the life of ARRA.* The amount spent so far is likely to be only about $30 billion. This is based on the GAO estimate that about $50 billion has passed through the states (of which about $20 billion represents Medicaid, which is not covered by the recipient reporting system).

One Response to “Preview: State ARRA Job Numbers Are All Over the Map”

  1. OMB Moves to Fix ARRA Snafus « Says:

    […] Fails to review and identify data quality problems from sub-recipient reporting […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: